MeritValue

EVOLUTION PETROLEUM CORP

EPMdata completeness 75%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

EVOLUTION PETROLEUM CORP earns about 13% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $1.27 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$32.7M1$108.9M2$128.5M3$85.9M4$85.8M4
Net income−$16.4M5$32.6M6$35.2M7$4.08M8$1.47M8
Operating cash flow$4.73M9$52.5M10$51.3M11$22.7M12$33.1M12
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$5.28M13$8.28M14$11M15$6.45M16$2.51M16
Diluted shares32.7M33.3M33.2M32.9M33.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$21.55
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.44
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $21.55 of net worth that earned you $0.44 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY21 -34%FY22 49%FY23 44%FY24 5%FY25 2%

It earned an average 13% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$1.27
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.08M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$1.21
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001558370-22-014404 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-23-015706 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-012740 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001104659-25-090839 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001558370-22-014404 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-23-015706 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-012740 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001104659-25-090839 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001558370-22-014404 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-23-015706 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-012740 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001104659-25-090839 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001558370-22-014404 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-23-015706 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-012740 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001104659-25-090839 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)