MeritValue

EPAM Systems, Inc.

EPAMdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

EPAM Systems, Inc. earns about 28% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $77.29 and $206.17 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.76B1$4.82B2$4.69B3$4.73B3$5.46B3
Net income$481.7M4$419.4M5$417.1M6$454.5M6$377.7M6
Operating cash flow$572.3M7$464.1M8$562.6M9$559.2M9$654.9M9
Capital expenditure$111.5M10$81.6M11$28.4M12$32.1M12$42.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$460.8M7$382.5M8$534.2M9$527M9$612.7M9
Total debt$46.3M13$30.6M14$26.1M15$25.2M16$25M16
Cash & equivalents$1.45B17$1.68B18$2.04B19$1.29B19$1.3B19
Diluted shares59.1M59.2M59.1M58.0M56.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$653.93
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$67.16
Free cash flow it threw off
$108.96
Debt you’d be carrying
$4.45

10 shares is a claim on $653.93 of net worth that earned you $67.16 and generated $108.96 of cash last year, against $4.45 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
28% avg · 5y
FY21 44%FY22 31%FY23 29%FY24 19%FY25 16%

It earned about 28% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 46% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $77.29 and $206.17 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$206.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$534.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$191.55
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$534.2M
Earnings Power Value
$77.29
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$419.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$99.44
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $191.55
The three cases
Bear0.0%$158.34
Base5.0%$191.55
Bull10.0%$230.93

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001352010-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001352010-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001352010-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001352010-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001352010-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001352010-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001352010-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001352010-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001352010-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001352010-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001352010-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001352010-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001352010-23-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001352010-24-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001352010-25-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001352010-26-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001352010-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001352010-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001352010-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)