MeritValue

EMPIRE PETROLEUM CORP

EPdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

EMPIRE PETROLEUM CORP earns about -32% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 133% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$27.5M1$53.2M2$40.1M3$44M3$34.2M4
Net income−$18.6M5$7.08M6−$12.5M7−$16.2M8−$72.1M8
Operating cash flow$3.17M9$18.1M10−$9.89M11$6.16M12−$3.95M12
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$6.12M13$9.26M14$10.3M15$22.7M16$641,00016
Cash & equivalents$3.61M17$11.9M18$7.79M19$2.25M20$1.19M20
Diluted shares14.6M23.4M22.7M30.1M34.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$1.35
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$21.16
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.19

10 shares is a claim on −$1.35 of net worth that earned you −$21.16 last year, against $0.19 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-32% avg · 5y
FY21 -119%FY22 34%FY23 -27%FY24 -15%FY25 —

It earned an average -32% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+133% shares · 5y

Share count is up 133% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 90% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001072613-23-000285 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001072613-24-000353 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001072613-25-000246 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027675 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001072613-23-000285 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001072613-24-000353 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001072613-25-000246 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027675 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001072613-23-000285 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001072613-24-000353 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001072613-25-000246 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027675 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001072613-23-000285 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001072613-24-000353 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001072613-25-000246 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027675 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001072613-23-000285 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001072613-24-000353 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001072613-25-000246 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027675 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)