MeritValue

Evolus, Inc.

EOLSdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Evolus, Inc. earns about -185% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 30% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$99.7M1$148.6M2$202.1M3$266.3M3$297.2M3
Net income−$46.8M4−$74.4M5−$61.7M6−$50.4M6−$51.6M6
Operating cash flow−$33.4M7−$84.9M8−$34M9−$18M9−$42.3M9
Capital expenditure$393,00010$1.62M11$473,00012$1.47M12$3.44M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$33.8M7−$86.5M8−$34.5M9−$19.5M9−$45.7M9
Total debt$71.2M13$71.9M14$120.4M15$121.5M16$146.1M16
Cash & equivalents$146.3M17$53.9M18$62.8M19$87M20$53.8M20
Diluted shares49.8M56.1M56.9M62.0M64.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$3.58
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$8.01
Free cash flow it threw off
−$7.09
Debt you’d be carrying
$22.66

10 shares is a claim on −$3.58 of net worth that earned you −$8.01 and generated −$7.09 of cash last year, against $22.66 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-185% avg · 5y
FY21 -524%FY22 -141%FY23 -102%FY24 -98%FY25 -58%

It earned an average -185% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+30% shares · 5y

Share count is up 30% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 105% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001570562-23-000038 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001570562-25-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014001 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001570562-23-000038 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001570562-25-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014001 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001570562-23-000038 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001570562-25-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014001 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001570562-23-000038 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001570562-25-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014001 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001570562-22-000067 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001570562-23-000038 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001570562-24-000041 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014001 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001570562-23-000038 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001570562-24-000041 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001570562-25-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014001 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)