MeritValue

EOG RESOURCES INC

EOGdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

EOG RESOURCES INC earns about 25% on invested capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $121.52 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$18.6B1$25.7B2$24.2B3$23.7B3$22.6B3
Net income$4.66B4$7.76B5$7.59B6$6.4B6$4.98B6
Operating cash flow$8.79B7$11.1B8$11.3B9$12.1B9$10B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$5.11B10$5.08B11$3.8B12$4.75B13$7.94B13
Cash & equivalents$5.21B14$5.97B15$5.28B16$7.09B17$3.4B17
Diluted shares584.0M587.0M584.0M569.0M546.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$546.39
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$91.21
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$145.35

10 shares is a claim on $546.39 of net worth that earned you $91.21 last year, against $145.35 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
25% avg · 5y
FY21 22%FY22 33%FY23 29%FY24 24%FY25 15%

It earned an average 25% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 55% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$121.52
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$6.4B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$105.89
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000821189-24-000011 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000821189-25-000011 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000821189-26-000054 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000821189-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000821189-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000821189-26-000054 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000821189-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000821189-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000821189-26-000054 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000821189-23-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000821189-24-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000821189-25-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000821189-26-000054 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000821189-23-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000821189-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000821189-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000821189-26-000054 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)