MeritValue

Enova International, Inc.

ENVAdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Enova International, Inc. earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 29% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $81.06 and $3,165.13 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.21B1$1.74B2$2.12B3$2.66B3$3.15B3
Net income$256.3M4$207.4M5$175.1M6$209.4M6$308.4M6
Operating cash flow$471.9M7$894M8$1.17B9$1.54B9$1.82B9
Capital expenditure$29.7M10$43.6M11$45.2M12$43.4M12$47.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$442.2M7$850.4M8$1.12B9$1.5B9$1.77B9
Total debt$1.38B13$2.26B14$2.94B15$3.56B16$4.5B16
Cash & equivalents$165.5M17$100.2M18$54.4M19$73.9M19$71.7M19
Diluted shares37.7M33.5M31.9M28.2M26.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$499.24
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$115.18
Free cash flow it threw off
$661.8
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,680.07

10 shares is a claim on $499.24 of net worth that earned you $115.18 and generated $661.8 of cash last year, against $1,680.07 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 9%FY23 8%FY24 9%FY25 10%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−29% shares · 5y

Share count is down 29% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 225% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $81.06 and $3,165.13 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$3,165.13
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.5B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$1,655.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.5B
Earnings Power Value
$81.06
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$209.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$113.76
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $1,655.3
The three cases
Bear0.0%$632.52
Base20.0%$1,655.3
Bull20.0%$1,655.3

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019385 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022244 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-060461 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019385 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022244 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-060461 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019385 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022244 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-060461 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-002334 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022244 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-060461 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004381 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019385 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022244 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-060461 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019385 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022244 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-060461 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)