MeritValue

ENSIGN GROUP, INC

ENSGdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ENSIGN GROUP, INC earns about 18% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $39.55 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.63B1$3.03B2$3.71B3$4.24B3$5.03B3
Net income$194.7M4$224.7M5$209.4M6$298M6$344M6
Operating cash flow$275.7M7$272.5M8$376.7M9$347.2M9$564.3M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$316.6M10$309.4M11$301.8M12$294.1M13$286.1M13
Cash & equivalents$262.2M14$316.3M15$509.6M16$464.6M17$503.9M17
Diluted shares56.9M56.9M57.3M58.2M58.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$379.07
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$58.43
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$48.6

10 shares is a claim on $379.07 of net worth that earned you $58.43 last year, against $48.6 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY21 19%FY22 19%FY23 17%FY24 18%FY25 17%

It earned an average 18% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$39.55
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$224.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$70.58
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001125376-24-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001125376-25-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001125376-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001125376-24-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001125376-25-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001125376-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001125376-24-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001125376-25-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001125376-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001125376-23-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001125376-24-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001125376-25-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001125376-26-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001125376-23-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001125376-24-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001125376-25-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001125376-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)