MeritValue

Enphase Energy, Inc.

ENPHdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Enphase Energy, Inc. earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $13.22 and $155.38 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.38B1$2.33B2$2.29B3$1.33B3$1.47B3
Net income$145.4M4$397.4M5$438.9M6$102.7M6$172.1M6
Operating cash flow$352M7$744.8M8$696.8M9$513.7M9$136.5M9
Capital expenditure$52.3M10$46.4M11$110.4M12$33.6M12$40.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$299.8M7$698.4M8$586.4M9$480.1M9$95.9M9
Total debt$2.08B13$2.58B14$2.59B15$2.6B16$2.41B16
Cash & equivalents$119.3M17$473.2M18$288.7M19$369.1M19$474.3M19
Diluted shares142.9M144.4M143.3M140.0M134.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$80.59
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.76
Free cash flow it threw off
$7.11
Debt you’d be carrying
$178.58

10 shares is a claim on $80.59 of net worth that earned you $12.76 and generated $7.11 of cash last year, against $178.58 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 14%FY23 14%FY24 3%FY25 6%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 16% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $13.22 and $155.38 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$155.38
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth17.0%
  • fcfBase$480.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$88.9
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth17.0%
  • fcfBase$480.1M
Earnings Power Value
$13.22
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$172.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$15.29
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years17.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $88.9
The three cases
Bear0.0%$36.51
Base17.0%$88.9
Bull20.0%$101.7

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 17.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001463101-24-000024 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001463101-25-000024 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001463101-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001463101-24-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001463101-25-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001463101-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001463101-24-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001463101-25-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001463101-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001463101-24-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001463101-25-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001463101-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001463101-23-000025 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001463101-24-000024 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001463101-25-000024 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001463101-26-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001463101-23-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001463101-25-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001463101-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)