MeritValue

Embassy Bancorp, Inc.

EMYBdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Embassy Bancorp, Inc. earns about 236% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $18.6 and $37.62 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$47.5M1$50.4M2$57.2M3$65M4$71.5M4
Net income$16.8M5$17.7M6$12.7M7$10.4M8$13.7M8
Operating cash flow$15.2M9$19.9M10$19.5M11$9.94M12$12.8M12
Capital expenditure$1.51M13$719,00014$806,00015$739,00016$632,00016
Free cash flow (derived)$13.7M9$19.2M10$18.7M11$9.21M12$12.2M12
Total debt$14.7M17————
Cash & equivalents$169.7M18$67.3M19$78.9M20$96.5M20$112.9M20
Diluted shares7.6M7.6M7.6M7.6M7.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$167.14
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$17.94
Free cash flow it threw off
$15.98
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $167.14 of net worth that earned you $17.94 and generated $15.98 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
236% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 100%FY23 103%FY24 408%FY25 331%

It earned about 236% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $18.6 and $37.62 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$35.91
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$12.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$37.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$12.2M
Earnings Power Value
$18.6
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$13.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$25.95
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $37.62
The three cases
Bear0.0%$37.62
Base0.0%$37.62
Bull5.0%$43.15

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001449794-23-000007 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001449794-24-000003 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001449794-25-000002 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001449794-26-000003 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001449794-23-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001449794-24-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001449794-25-000002 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001449794-26-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001449794-23-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001449794-24-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001449794-25-000002 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001449794-26-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001449794-23-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001449794-24-000003 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001449794-25-000002 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001449794-26-000003 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001449794-23-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001449794-24-000003 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001449794-25-000002 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001449794-26-000003 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)