MeritValue

EMERSON ELECTRIC CO

EMRdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

EMERSON ELECTRIC CO earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $20.19 and $42.11 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$12.9B1$13.8B2$15.2B3$17.5B3$18B3
Net income$2.3B4$3.23B5$13.2B6$1.97B6$2.29B6
Operating cash flow$3.58B7$2.92B8$637M9$3.33B9$3.1B9
Capital expenditure$404M10$299M11$363M12$419M12$431M12
Free cash flow (derived)$3.17B7$2.62B8$274M9$2.91B9$2.67B9
Total debt$7.54B13$21.3B14$16.9B15$15.9B16$26.8B16
Cash & equivalents$2.35B17$1.8B18$8.05B18$3.59B18$1.54B18
Diluted shares601.8M596.3M577.3M574.0M566.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$357.9
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$40.46
Free cash flow it threw off
$47.06
Debt you’d be carrying
$473.57

10 shares is a claim on $357.9 of net worth that earned you $40.46 and generated $47.06 of cash last year, against $473.57 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 6%FY23 8%FY24 5%FY25 5%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 256% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $20.19 and $42.11 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$20.19
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.6%
  • fcfBase$2.67B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$24.27
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.6%
  • fcfBase$2.67B
Earnings Power Value
$42.11
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.3B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$57.04
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $24.27
The three cases
Bear0.0%$22.61
Base0.6%$24.27
Bull5.6%$40.88

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000032604-23-000044 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000032604-24-000041 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000032604-25-000087 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000032604-23-000044 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000032604-24-000041 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000032604-25-000087 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000032604-23-000044 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000032604-24-000041 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000032604-25-000087 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000032604-23-000044 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000032604-24-000041 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000032604-25-000087 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000032604-22-000041 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000032604-23-000044 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000032604-24-000041 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000032604-25-000087 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000032604-22-000041 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000032604-25-000087 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)