MeritValue

EASTMAN CHEMICAL CO

EMNdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

EASTMAN CHEMICAL CO earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 16% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $25.89 and $76.82 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$10.5B1$10.6B2$9.21B3$9.38B3$8.75B3
Net income$857M4$793M5$894M6$905M6$474M6
Operating cash flow$1.62B7$975M8$1.37B9$1.29B9$970M9
Capital expenditure$555M10$611M11$828M12$599M12$546M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.06B7$364M8$546M9$688M9$424M9
Total debt$5.16B13$5.15B14$4.85B15$5.02B16$4.79B16
Cash & equivalents$459M17$493M18$548M19$837M20$566M20
Diluted shares137.1M124.9M119.4M117.9M115.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$515.66
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$41
Free cash flow it threw off
$36.68
Debt you’d be carrying
$414.1

10 shares is a claim on $515.66 of net worth that earned you $41 and generated $36.68 of cash last year, against $414.1 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 7%FY23 7%FY24 7%FY25 3%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−16% shares · 5y

Share count is down 16% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $25.89 and $76.82 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$25.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$546M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$30.97
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$546M
Earnings Power Value
$76.82
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$857M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$68.97
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $30.97
The three cases
Bear0.0%$30.97
Base0.0%$30.97
Bull5.0%$47.3

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000915389-24-000016 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000915389-25-000012 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000915389-26-000013 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000915389-24-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000915389-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000915389-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000915389-24-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000915389-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000915389-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000915389-24-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000915389-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000915389-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000915389-23-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000915389-24-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000915389-25-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000915389-26-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000915389-23-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000915389-24-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000915389-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000915389-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)