EASTERN CO

EMLdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

EASTERN CO earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.58 and $84.7 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2023FY 2024FY 2026
Revenue$279.3M1$258.9M2$258.9M2$272.8M3$249M3
Net income$12.3M4$8.59M5$8.59M4−$8.53M6$7.13M6
Operating cash flow$7.46M7$25.5M8$25.5M8$19.4M9$8.87M9
Capital expenditure$3.37M10$5.54M11$5.54M11$9.71M12$3.97M12
Free cash flow (derived)$4.09M7$20M8$20M8$9.68M9$4.9M9
Total debt$128.3M13$87.9M14$87.9M14$84.5M15$67.8M15
Cash & equivalents$10.2M16$8.05M17$8.05M17$14M18$7.41M18
Diluted shares6.2M6.3M6.3M6.2M6.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$204.33
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$11.69
Free cash flow it threw off
$8.03
Debt you’d be carrying
$111.15

10 shares is a claim on $204.33 of net worth that earned you $11.69 and generated $8.03 of cash last year, against $111.15 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY22 7%FY23 7%FY23 7%FY24 8%FY26 4%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 47% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.58 and $84.7 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$84.7
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$9.68M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$41.82
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$9.68M
Earnings Power Value
$14.58
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$8.59M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$23.19
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $41.82
The three cases
Bear0.0%$12.76
Base20.0%$41.82
Bull20.0%$41.82

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-003010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001654954-25-002610 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001654954-26-002506 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-003010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001654954-25-002610 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001654954-26-002506 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-003010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001654954-25-002610 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001654954-26-002506 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-003010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001654954-25-002610 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001654954-26-002506 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-003010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001654954-25-002610 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001654954-26-002506 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-23-002848 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001654954-25-002610 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001654954-26-002506 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)