MeritValue

EMCOR Group, Inc.

EMEdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

EMCOR Group, Inc. earns about 41% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 17% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $145.3 and $1,595.81 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$9.9B1$11.1B2$12.6B3$14.6B3$17B3
Net income$383.5M4$406.1M5$633M6$1.01B6$1.27B6
Operating cash flow$318.8M7$497.9M8$899.7M9$1.41B9$1.3B9
Capital expenditure$36.2M10$49.3M11$78.4M12$75M12$112.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$282.6M7$448.6M8$821.3M9$1.33B9$1.19B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$821.3M13$456.4M14$789.8M15$1.34B16$1.11B16
Diluted shares54.3M50.1M47.6M46.8M45.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$813.8
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$281.93
Free cash flow it threw off
$263.44
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $813.8 of net worth that earned you $281.93 and generated $263.44 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
41% avg · 5y
FY21 27%FY22 27%FY23 38%FY24 63%FY25 50%

It earned about 41% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−17% shares · 5y

Share count is down 17% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $145.3 and $1,595.81 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1,595.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.19B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$883.53
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.19B
Earnings Power Value
$145.3
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$633M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$227.19
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $883.53
The three cases
Bear0.0%$401.02
Base20.0%$883.53
Bull20.0%$883.53

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000105634-24-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000105634-25-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000105634-26-000025 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000105634-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000105634-25-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000105634-26-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000105634-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000105634-25-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000105634-26-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000105634-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000105634-25-000015 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000105634-26-000025 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000105634-23-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000105634-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000105634-25-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000105634-26-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)