MeritValue

Embrace Change Acquisition Corp.

EMCGFdata completeness 63%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

The applicable estimate puts fair value near $6.51 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue———
Net income$410,6461$2.42M2$1.44M2
Operating cash flow−$197,5133−$352,3514−$528,8484
Capital expenditure———
Free cash flow (derived)———
Total debt———
Cash & equivalents$403,0125$5,3085$66,9855
Diluted shares4.9M2.3M2.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$25.37
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$6.28
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$25.37 of net worth that earned you $6.28 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 3y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−53% shares · 3y

Share count is down 53% over 3 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$6.51
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.44M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001829126-24-005033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001829126-25-001705 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001829126-24-005033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001829126-25-001705 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001829126-25-001705 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)