MeritValue

EMBRAER S.A.

EMBJdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

EMBRAER S.A. earns about 21% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.35 and $48.62 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.2B1$4.54B2$5.27B3$6.39B3$7.58B3
Net income−$44.7M4−$185.4M5$164M6$352.5M6$351.9M6
Operating cash flow$515.3M7$751.3M8$617M9$871.2M9$870M9
Capital expenditure$101.7M10$136.2M11$238.7M12$200.4M12$187.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$413.6M7$615.1M8$378.3M9$670.8M9$682.8M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$1.82B13$1.82B14$1.63B15$1.56B16$1.95B16
Diluted shares734.6M734.6M734.6M734.6M722.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$47.66
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.87
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.45
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $47.66 of net worth that earned you $4.87 and generated $9.45 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
21% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 -0%FY23 29%FY24 32%FY25 29%

It earned about 21% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.35 and $48.62 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$48.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth17.5%
  • fcfBase$670.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$30.15
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth17.5%
  • fcfBase$670.8M
Earnings Power Value
$2.35
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$164M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$7.17
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years17.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $30.15
The three cases
Bear0.0%$15.96
Base17.5%$30.15
Bull20.0%$32.96

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 17.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-087644 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-069283 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-021824 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-087644 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-069283 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-021824 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-087644 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-069283 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-021824 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-087644 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-069283 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-021824 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-085895 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-087644 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-069283 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-021824 (CashAndCashEquivalents)