MeritValue

Embecta Corp.

EMBCdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Embecta Corp. earns about 30% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $16.78 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.17B1$1.13B2$1.12B3$1.12B3$1.08B3
Net income$414.8M4$223.6M5$70.4M6$78.3M6$95.4M6
Operating cash flow$456.3M7$412.2M8$67.7M9$35.7M9$191.7M9
Capital expenditure$36.8M10$23.6M11$26.5M12$15.8M12$9.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$419.5M7$388.6M8$41.2M9$19.9M9$182.4M9
Total debt$013$1.61B14$1.6B15$3.15B16$2.8B16
Cash & equivalents$017$330.9M18$326.3M19$267.5M20$225.5M20
Diluted shares57.0M57.5M57.8M58.3M58.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$110.43
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$16.19
Free cash flow it threw off
$30.96
Debt you’d be carrying
$474.65

10 shares is a claim on −$110.43 of net worth that earned you $16.19 and generated $30.96 of cash last year, against $474.65 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
30% avg · 5y
FY21 70%FY22 58%FY23 15%FY24 2%FY25 5%

It earned an average 30% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$41.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$41.2M
Earnings Power Value
$16.78
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$95.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001872789-23-000031 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001872789-24-000037 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001872789-25-000036 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001872789-23-000031 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001872789-24-000037 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001872789-25-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001872789-23-000031 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001872789-24-000037 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001872789-25-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001872789-23-000031 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001872789-24-000037 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001872789-25-000036 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001872789-22-000024 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001872789-23-000031 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001872789-24-000037 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001872789-25-000036 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001872789-22-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001872789-23-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001872789-24-000037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001872789-25-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)