MeritValue

Elvictor Group, Inc.

ELVGdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Elvictor Group, Inc. earns about -1982% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 100% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $4.13 and $4.26 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$400,1581$430,1021$2.36M2$2.42M3$2.43M3
Net income−$43.2M4−$238,8585−$222,7276$199,7807−$175,7197
Operating cash flow−$134,2348$210,3659$206,18110−$583,51911$418,35111
Capital expenditure$12,87712$14,91113$5,43814$6,85115$11,19415
Free cash flow (derived)−$147,1118$195,4549$200,74310−$590,37011$407,15711
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$308,52616$503,98117$699,34618$101,08919$490,97419
Diluted shares306.4M414.1M414.4M828,914828,914

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$4.31
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.12
Free cash flow it threw off
$4.91
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $4.31 of net worth that earned you −$2.12 and generated $4.91 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-1982% avg · 5y
FY21 -9749%FY22 -53%FY23 -97%FY24 37%FY25 -49%

It earned about -1982% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−100% shares · 5y

Share count is down 100% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $4.13 and $4.26 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$4.13
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth1.3%
  • fcfBase$200,743
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$4.26
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth1.3%
  • fcfBase$200,743
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years1.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $4.26
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.05
Base1.3%$4.26
Bull6.3%$5.14

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 1.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-025269 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-031497 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-040480 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-025269 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-028567 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-031497 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-040480 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-025269 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-028567 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-031497 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-040480 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-025269 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-028567 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-031497 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-040480 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-028567 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-028567 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-031497 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-040480 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)