MeritValue

Elevance Health, Inc.

ELVdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Elevance Health, Inc. earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $25.33 and $275.91 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$138.6B1$156.6B2$171.3B3$177B3$199.1B3
Net income$6.16B4$5.89B5$5.99B6$5.98B6$5.66B6
Operating cash flow$8.36B7$8.4B8$8.06B9$5.81B9$4.29B9
Capital expenditure$1.09B10$1.15B11$1.3B12$1.26B12$1.12B12
Free cash flow (derived)$7.28B7$7.25B8$6.77B9$4.55B9$3.17B9
Total debt$45.8B13$48B14$50B15$62.1B16$63.9B16
Cash & equivalents$4.88B17$7.39B18$6.53B19$8.29B20$9.49B20
Diluted shares246.8M242.8M237.4M232.9M224.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,953.78
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$252.09
Free cash flow it threw off
$141.32
Debt you’d be carrying
$2,846.93

10 shares is a claim on $1,953.78 of net worth that earned you $252.09 and generated $141.32 of cash last year, against $2,846.93 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 9%FY23 8%FY24 6%FY25 6%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 40% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $25.33 and $275.91 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$25.33
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$4.55B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$47.14
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$4.55B
Earnings Power Value
$275.91
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$5.98B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$332.9
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $47.14
The three cases
Bear0.0%$47.14
Base0.0%$47.14
Bull5.0%$117.23

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001156039-24-000015 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001156039-25-000010 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001156039-26-000013 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001156039-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001156039-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001156039-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001156039-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001156039-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001156039-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001156039-24-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001156039-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001156039-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001156039-23-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001156039-24-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001156039-25-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001156039-26-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001156039-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001156039-24-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001156039-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001156039-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)