MeritValue

Elicio Therapeutics, Inc.

ELTXdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Elicio Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -1364% on equity, and has bought back 46% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$27.5M1$2.3M1———
Net income−$54.6M2−$28.2M3−$35.2M4−$51.9M5−$39.6M5
Operating cash flow−$52.6M6−$22.2M7−$32.7M8−$37.1M9−$37M9
Capital expenditure$382,00010$654,00011$66,00012$87,00013$16,00013
Free cash flow (derived)−$53M6−$22.8M7−$32.8M8−$37.2M9−$37M9
Total debt$014——$20M15$19.4M15
Cash & equivalents$88.8M16$6.16M17$12.9M18$17.6M19$18.6M19
Diluted shares28.2M315,9985.1M12.2M15.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1.07
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$25.84
Free cash flow it threw off
−$24.14
Debt you’d be carrying
$12.67

10 shares is a claim on $1.07 of net worth that earned you −$25.84 and generated −$24.14 of cash last year, against $12.67 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-1364% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 -309%FY24 —FY25 -2419%

It earned an average -1364% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−46% shares · 5y

Share count is down 46% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001601485-23-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001601485-23-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001601485-24-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001601485-25-000049 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001601485-26-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001601485-23-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001601485-24-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001601485-25-000049 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001601485-26-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001601485-23-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001601485-24-000023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001601485-25-000049 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001601485-26-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001601485-22-000022 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001601485-26-000027 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001601485-23-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001601485-24-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001601485-25-000049 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001601485-26-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)