MeritValue

ELECTRO SENSORS INC

ELSEdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ELECTRO SENSORS INC earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.91 and $4.07 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$8.61M1$9.03M2$8.56M3$9.37M4$10.1M4
Net income$410,0005$100,0006$275,0007$446,0008$306,0008
Operating cash flow$769,0009−$147,00010$321,00011$129,00012$662,00012
Capital expenditure$141,00013$65,00014$70,00015$51,00016$65,00016
Free cash flow (derived)$628,0009−$212,00010$251,00011$78,00012$597,00012
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$6.71M17$7.65M18$9.87M19$9.95M20$10.5M20
Diluted shares3.4M3.4M3.4M3.4M3.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$42.63
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.88
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.72
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $42.63 of net worth that earned you $0.88 and generated $1.72 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 1%FY23 7%FY24 10%FY25 7%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.91 and $4.07 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$3.99
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$251,000
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$4.07
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$251,000
Earnings Power Value
$0.91
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$306,000
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$2.94
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $4.07
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.07
Base0.0%$4.07
Bull5.0%$4.32

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000897101-23-000109 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000897101-24-000108 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000897101-25-000160 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001554855-26-000455 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000897101-23-000109 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000897101-24-000108 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000897101-25-000160 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001554855-26-000455 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000897101-23-000109 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000897101-24-000108 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000897101-25-000160 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001554855-26-000455 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000897101-23-000109 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000897101-24-000108 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000897101-25-000160 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001554855-26-000455 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000897101-23-000109 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000897101-24-000108 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000897101-25-000160 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001554855-26-000455 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)