MeritValue

EQUITY LIFESTYLE PROPERTIES INC

ELSdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

EQUITY LIFESTYLE PROPERTIES INC earns about 22% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $17.07 and $63.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.32B1$1.45B2$1.49B3$1.53B3$1.53B3
Net income$276M4$298.8M5$329.7M6$384.8M6$402.1M6
Operating cash flow$509M7$475.8M8$548M9$596.7M9$571.1M9
Capital expenditure$398M10$132.8M10$317.1M11$241.3M11$237.1M11
Free cash flow (derived)$111M7$343M8$230.9M9$355.4M9$334.1M9
Total debt$3.27B12$3.39B13$3.52B14$3.2B15$3.35B16
Cash & equivalents$123.4M17$22.3M18$29.9M18$24.6M18$26.1M18
Diluted shares192.9M195.3M195.4M196.6M200.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$87.76
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$20.09
Free cash flow it threw off
$16.69
Debt you’d be carrying
$167.2

10 shares is a claim on $87.76 of net worth that earned you $20.09 and generated $16.69 of cash last year, against $167.2 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
22% avg · 5y
FY21 20%FY22 21%FY23 23%FY24 22%FY25 23%

It earned about 22% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $17.07 and $63.43 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$63.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth17.1%
  • fcfBase$334.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$31.97
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth17.1%
  • fcfBase$334.1M
Earnings Power Value
$17.07
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$329.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$19.92
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years17.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $31.97
The three cases
Bear0.0%$7.26
Base17.1%$31.97
Bull20.0%$37.84

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 17.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000895417-24-000036 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000895417-25-000013 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008722 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000895417-24-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000895417-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008722 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000895417-24-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000895417-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008722 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000895417-24-000016 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008722 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000895417-22-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000895417-24-000016 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000895417-24-000036 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000895417-25-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008722 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000895417-25-000013 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008722 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)