MeritValue

Elme Communities

ELMEdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Elme Communities earns about -2% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 7% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $7.05 and $7.62 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$176M1$169.2M2$209.4M3$227.9M4$241.9M4
Net income−$15.7M5$16.4M6−$30.9M7−$53M8−$13.1M8
Operating cash flow$113M9$89.2M10$73.2M11$84.7M12$95.2M12
Capital expenditure$58.1M13$32.4M14$36.5M15$38.2M16$47.4M16
Free cash flow (derived)$54.9M9$56.7M10$36.7M11$46.5M12$47.9M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$7.7M17$233.6M18$8.39M19$5.98M20$6.14M20
Diluted shares82.3M84.5M87.4M87.7M87.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$123.04
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.49
Free cash flow it threw off
$5.44
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $123.04 of net worth that earned you −$1.49 and generated $5.44 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-2% avg · 5y
FY20 -1%FY21 1%FY22 -2%FY23 -5%FY24 -1%

It earned about -2% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+7% shares · 5y

Share count is up 7% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7.05 and $7.62 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$7.05
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$46.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$7.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$46.5M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $7.62
The three cases
Bear0.0%$7.62
Base0.0%$7.62
Bull5.0%$9.45

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000104894-23-000028 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000104894-24-000019 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000104894-25-000020 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000104894-26-000011 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000104894-23-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000104894-24-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000104894-25-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000104894-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000104894-23-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000104894-24-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000104894-25-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000104894-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000104894-23-000028 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000104894-24-000019 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000104894-25-000020 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000104894-26-000011 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000104894-23-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000104894-24-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000104894-25-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000104894-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)