e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.
ELFdata completeness 100%12 fiscal years on filee.l.f. Beauty, Inc. earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 11% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $10.74 and $106.58 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $392.2M1 | $578.8M2 | $1.02B3 | $1.31B3 | $1.64B3 |
| Net income | $21.8M4 | $61.5M5 | $127.7M6 | $112.1M6 | $26.3M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $19.5M7 | $101.9M8 | $71.2M9 | $133.8M9 | $212.5M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $4.82M10 | $1.72M11 | $8.66M12 | $18.5M12 | $22.4M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $14.7M7 | $100.2M8 | $62.5M9 | $115.3M9 | $190.1M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | $841.7M13 |
| Cash & equivalents | $43.4M14 | $120.8M15 | $108.2M16 | $148.7M17 | $289.7M17 |
| Diluted shares | 53.7M | 55.3M | 57.8M | 58.3M | 59.4M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $190.48 of net worth that earned you $4.43 and generated $32.02 of cash last year, against $141.81 of debt.
It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 11% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.74 and $106.58 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$115.3M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$115.3M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$61.5M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $18.46 |
| Base | 20.0% | $54.05 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $54.05 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001600033-24-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001600033-25-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001600033-26-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001600033-24-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001600033-25-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001600033-26-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001600033-24-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001600033-25-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001600033-26-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001600033-24-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001600033-25-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001600033-26-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2026-03-31 · accession 0001600033-26-000020 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001600033-23-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001600033-24-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001600033-25-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001600033-26-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)