MeritValue

ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC

ELdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC earns about 28% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.46 and $58.78 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$17.7B1$15.9B2$15.6B3$14.3B3$15B3
Net income$2.41B4$1.01B5$409M6−$1.13B6$182M6
Operating cash flow$3.04B7$1.73B8$2.36B9$1.27B9$1.77B9
Capital expenditure$1.04B10$1B11$919M12$602M12$457M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2B7$728M8$1.44B9$670M9$1.32B9
Total debt$268M13$2B14$504M15$3M16$503M16
Cash & equivalents$3.96B17$4.03B18$3.4B18$2.92B18$3.5B18
Diluted shares364.9M360.9M360.8M360.1M364.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$104.33
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.99
Free cash flow it threw off
$36.07
Debt you’d be carrying
$13.79

10 shares is a claim on $104.33 of net worth that earned you $4.99 and generated $36.07 of cash last year, against $13.79 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
28% avg · 5y
FY22 134%FY23 34%FY24 25%FY25 -87%FY26 32%

It earned about 28% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 88% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.46 and $58.78 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$55
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.32B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$58.78
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.32B
Earnings Power Value
$11.46
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$409M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$10.83
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.06%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $58.78
The three cases
Bear0.0%$58.78
Base0.0%$58.78
Bull5.0%$70.98

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001001250-24-000116 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001001250-25-000099 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001001250-26-000041 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001001250-24-000116 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001001250-25-000099 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001001250-26-000041 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001001250-24-000116 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001001250-25-000099 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001001250-26-000041 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001001250-24-000116 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001001250-25-000099 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001001250-26-000041 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001001250-23-000112 (DebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001001250-24-000116 (CommercialPaper)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001001250-25-000099 (DebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001001250-26-000041 (DebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001001250-25-000099 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001001250-26-000041 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)