MeritValue

ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC

ELdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC earns about 75% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $29.07 and $36.99 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$16.2B1$17.7B2$15.9B3$15.6B3$14.3B3
Net income$2.88B4$2.41B5$1.01B6$409M6−$1.13B6
Operating cash flow$3.63B7$3.04B8$1.73B9$2.36B9$1.27B9
Capital expenditure$637M10$1.04B11$1B12$919M12$602M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.99B7$2B8$728M9$1.44B9$670M9
Total debt$32M13$268M14$2B15$504M16$3M16
Cash & equivalents$4.96B17$3.96B18$4.03B18$3.4B18$2.92B18
Diluted shares368.2M364.9M360.9M360.8M360.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$107.33
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$31.46
Free cash flow it threw off
$18.61
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.08

10 shares is a claim on $107.33 of net worth that earned you −$31.46 and generated $18.61 of cash last year, against $0.08 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
75% avg · 5y
FY21 267%FY22 134%FY23 34%FY24 25%FY25 -87%

It earned about 75% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 91% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $29.07 and $36.99 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$34.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$728M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$36.99
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$728M
Earnings Power Value
$29.07
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.01B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $36.99
The three cases
Bear0.0%$36.99
Base0.0%$36.99
Bull5.0%$43.98

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001001250-23-000112 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001001250-24-000116 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001001250-25-000099 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001001250-23-000112 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001001250-24-000116 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001001250-25-000099 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001001250-23-000112 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001001250-24-000116 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001001250-25-000099 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001001250-23-000112 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001001250-24-000116 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001001250-25-000099 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001001250-22-000122 (DebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001001250-23-000112 (DebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001001250-24-000116 (CommercialPaper)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001001250-25-000099 (DebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001001250-24-000116 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001001250-25-000099 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)