MeritValue

Employers Holdings, Inc.

EIGdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Employers Holdings, Inc. earns about 9% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 18% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $52.02 and $88.37 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$703.1M1$713.5M2$850.9M3$880.7M3$858.7M3
Net income$119.3M4$48.4M5$118.1M6$118.6M6$10.8M6
Operating cash flow$10.8M7$99.8M8$49.4M9$76.4M9$44.7M9
Capital expenditure$300,00010$100,00011$012$100,00012$100,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$10.5M7$99.7M8$49.4M9$76.3M9$44.6M9
Total debt———$013$35M13
Cash & equivalents$75.1M14$89.2M15$226.4M16$68.3M17$159.8M17
Diluted shares28.6M27.7M26.5M25.2M23.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$406.23
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.59
Free cash flow it threw off
$18.96
Debt you’d be carrying
$14.88

10 shares is a claim on $406.23 of net worth that earned you $4.59 and generated $18.96 of cash last year, against $14.88 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 6%FY23 16%FY24 12%FY25 1%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−18% shares · 5y

Share count is down 18% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $52.02 and $88.37 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$88.37
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth14.5%
  • fcfBase$49.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$60.49
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth14.5%
  • fcfBase$49.4M
Earnings Power Value
$52.02
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$118.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20.5
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years14.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $60.49
The three cases
Bear0.0%$35.31
Base14.5%$60.49
Bull19.5%$72.48

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 14.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001379041-24-000042 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001379041-25-000049 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001379041-26-000011 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001379041-24-000042 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001379041-25-000049 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001379041-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001379041-24-000042 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001379041-25-000049 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001379041-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001379041-24-000042 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001379041-25-000049 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001379041-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001379041-26-000011 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001379041-23-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001379041-24-000042 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001379041-25-000049 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001379041-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)