Encompass Health Corp

EHCdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Encompass Health Corp earns about 33% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $41.8 and $210.97 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.01B1$4.35B2$4.8B3$5.37B3$5.94B3
Net income$412.2M4$271M5$352M6$455.7M6$566.2M6
Operating cash flow$715.8M7$705.8M7$850.8M8$1B8$1.18B8
Capital expenditure$524.6M9$564.8M9$583.1M10$642.5M10$736.4M10
Free cash flow (derived)$191.2M7$141M7$267.7M8$360.3M8$439.2M8
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$49.4M11$21.8M12$69.1M12$85.4M12$72.2M12
Diluted shares100.2M100.4M101.3M102.2M102.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$238.57
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$55.4
Free cash flow it threw off
$42.97
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $238.57 of net worth that earned you $55.4 and generated $42.97 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
33% avg · 5y
FY21 29%FY22 38%FY23 37%FY24 30%FY25 32%

It earned about 33% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $41.8 and $210.97 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$210.97
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$360.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$115.65
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$360.3M
Earnings Power Value
$41.8
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$412.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$54.53
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $115.65
The three cases
Bear0.0%$51.08
Base20.0%$115.65
Bull20.0%$115.65

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000785161-24-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000785161-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000785161-26-000081 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000785161-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000785161-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000785161-26-000081 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000785161-23-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000785161-26-000081 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000785161-23-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000785161-26-000081 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000785161-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000785161-26-000081 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)