MeritValue

VAALCO ENERGY INC /DE/

EGYdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

VAALCO ENERGY INC /DE/ earns about 22% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 77% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $5.82 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$199.1M1$354.3M2$455.1M3$479M3$359.3M3
Net income$81.8M4$51.9M5$60.4M6$58.5M6−$41.4M6
Operating cash flow$50.1M7$128.8M8$223.6M9$113.7M9$212.7M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—$010$011$012$60M12
Cash & equivalents$48.7M13$37.2M14$121M15$82.7M16$58.9M16
Diluted shares58.8M70.0M106.6M103.7M104.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$42.62
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.98
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$5.77

10 shares is a claim on $42.62 of net worth that earned you −$3.98 last year, against $5.77 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
22% avg · 5y
FY21 63%FY22 14%FY23 21%FY24 17%FY25 -5%

It earned an average 22% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+77% shares · 5y

Share count is up 77% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$5.82
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$58.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008094 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000894627-25-000014 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000894627-26-000013 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008094 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000894627-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000894627-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008094 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000894627-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000894627-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008094 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000894627-25-000014 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000894627-26-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-009697 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008094 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000894627-25-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000894627-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)