MeritValue

ELDORADO GOLD CORP /FI

EGOdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

ELDORADO GOLD CORP /FI earns about 5% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $5.46 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$940.9M1$872M2$1.01B3$1.32B4$1.82B4
Net income−$136M5−$353.8M6$104.6M7$289.1M8$507.3M8
Operating cash flow—————
Capital expenditure$282.1M9$289.9M10$401.9M11$594.1M12$866.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$489.8M13$494.4M14$636.1M15$915.4M16$1.28B16
Cash & equivalents$481.3M17$279.7M18$540.5M19$856.8M19$869.4M19
Diluted shares182.7M184.8M203.1M204.9M198.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$215.5
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$25.55
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$64.21

10 shares is a claim on $215.5 of net worth that earned you $25.55 last year, against $64.21 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 0%FY23 3%FY24 8%FY25 11%

It earned an average 5% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 5y

Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 160% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$5.46
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$104.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$34.61
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000918608-23-000008 (Revenue)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000918608-24-000006 (Revenue)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000918608-25-000006 (Revenue)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000918608-26-000007 (Revenue)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000918608-23-000008 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000918608-24-000006 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000918608-25-000006 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000918608-26-000007 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000918608-23-000008 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000918608-24-000006 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000918608-25-000006 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000918608-26-000007 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000918608-23-000008 (Borrowings)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000918608-24-000006 (Borrowings)
  15. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000918608-25-000006 (Borrowings)
  16. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000918608-26-000007 (Borrowings)
  17. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000918608-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  18. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000918608-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  19. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000918608-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalents)