MeritValue

EAGLE BANCORP INC

EGBNdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

EAGLE BANCORP INC earns about 149% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $34.33 and $78.53 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$364.5M1$424.6M2$625.3M3$687.6M3$604.5M3
Net income$176.7M4$140.9M5$100.5M6−$47M6−$138.1M6
Operating cash flow$238.4M7$194.9M8$195.6M9$123.8M9$28.5M9
Capital expenditure$5.29M10$2.11M11$70,00012$326,00012$7.73M12
Free cash flow (derived)$233.2M7$192.8M8$195.6M9$123.4M9$20.8M9
Total debt$393.6M13$1.08B13$1.37B14$566.1M15$76.4M15
Cash & equivalents$1.71B16$311.9M17$722.7M17$633.5M17$695.7M17
Diluted shares32.0M32.1M30.4M30.2M30.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$372.78
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$45.49
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.84
Debt you’d be carrying
$25.18

10 shares is a claim on $372.78 of net worth that earned you −$45.49 and generated $6.84 of cash last year, against $25.18 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
149% avg · 5y
FY21 685%FY22 10%FY23 19%FY24 18%FY25 11%

It earned about 149% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 81% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $34.33 and $78.53 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$74.15
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$123.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$78.53
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$123.4M
Earnings Power Value
$34.33
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$100.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $78.53
The three cases
Bear0.0%$78.53
Base0.0%$78.53
Bull5.0%$92.59

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001050441-24-000053 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001050441-25-000051 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001050441-26-000021 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001050441-24-000053 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001050441-25-000051 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001050441-26-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001050441-24-000053 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001050441-25-000051 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001050441-26-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001050441-24-000053 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001050441-25-000051 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001050441-26-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001050441-23-000060 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001050441-25-000051 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001050441-26-000021 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001050441-25-000051 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001050441-26-000021 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)