MeritValue

EQUIFAX INC

EFXdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

EQUIFAX INC earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $55.14 and $202.66 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.92B1$5.12B2$5.27B3$5.68B3$6.07B3
Net income$744.2M4$696.2M5$545.3M6$604.1M6$660.3M6
Operating cash flow$1.33B7$757.1M8$1.12B9$1.32B9$1.62B9
Capital expenditure$469M10$624.5M11$601.3M12$511.5M12$481.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$865.8M7$132.6M8$515.5M9$813M9$1.13B9
Total debt$10.6B13$11.6B14$11.5B15$10B16$10.2B16
Cash & equivalents$224.7M17$285.2M18$216.8M19$169.9M20$180.8M20
Diluted shares123.6M123.3M123.9M124.9M124.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$371.02
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$53.21
Free cash flow it threw off
$91.4
Debt you’d be carrying
$822.52

10 shares is a claim on $371.02 of net worth that earned you $53.21 and generated $91.4 of cash last year, against $822.52 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 5%FY23 5%FY24 4%FY25 5%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $55.14 and $202.66 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$202.66
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth15.7%
  • fcfBase$813M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$99.75
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth15.7%
  • fcfBase$813M
Earnings Power Value
$55.14
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$660.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$66.64
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years15.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $99.75
The three cases
Bear0.0%$12.81
Base15.7%$99.75
Bull20.0%$132.8

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 15.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000033185-24-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000033185-25-000025 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000033185-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000033185-24-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000033185-25-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000033185-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000033185-24-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000033185-25-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000033185-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000033185-24-000017 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000033185-25-000025 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000033185-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000033185-23-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000033185-24-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000033185-25-000025 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000033185-26-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000033185-23-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000033185-24-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000033185-25-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000033185-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)