MeritValue

ENTERPRISE FINANCIAL SERVICES CORP

EFSCdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

ENTERPRISE FINANCIAL SERVICES CORP earns about 33% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 8% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $54 and $281.22 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$383.2M1$515.1M2$764.9M3$851.1M3$888.4M3
Net income$133.1M4$203M5$194.1M6$185.3M6$201.4M6
Operating cash flow$160.6M7$216.6M8$268.2M9$247.4M9$193.5M9
Capital expenditure$2.5M10$1.93M11$6.56M12$7.48M12$12M12
Free cash flow (derived)$158.1M7$214.7M8$261.7M9$239.9M9$181.5M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$2.02B13$291.4M14$433M14$764.2M14$681.9M14
Diluted shares34.5M37.5M37.5M37.6M37.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$547.65
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$54.08
Free cash flow it threw off
$48.75
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $547.65 of net worth that earned you $54.08 and generated $48.75 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
33% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 19%FY23 28%FY24 39%FY25 48%

It earned about 33% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+8% shares · 5y

Share count is up 8% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $54 and $281.22 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$281.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth14.9%
  • fcfBase$239.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$190.45
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth14.9%
  • fcfBase$239.9M
Earnings Power Value
$54
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$194.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$80.89
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years14.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $190.45
The three cases
Bear0.0%$110.37
Base14.9%$190.45
Bull19.9%$227.74

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 14.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001025835-24-000017 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001025835-25-000039 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001025835-26-000058 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001025835-24-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001025835-25-000039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001025835-26-000058 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001025835-24-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001025835-25-000039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001025835-26-000058 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001025835-24-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001025835-25-000039 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001025835-26-000058 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001025835-22-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001025835-26-000058 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)