MeritValue

Emerald Holding, Inc.

EEXdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Emerald Holding, Inc. earns about -4% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 179% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.26 and $3.48 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$145.5M1$325.9M2$382.8M3$398.8M3$463.4M3
Net income−$79.7M4$130.8M5−$8.2M6$2.2M6−$30.7M6
Operating cash flow$90M7$175.1M8$40.3M9$46.8M9$42.6M9
Capital expenditure$1.5M10$1.8M11$600,00012$1.3M12$1.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$88.5M7$173.3M8$39.7M9$45.5M9$41.4M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$231.2M13$239.1M14$204.2M15$194.8M16$100.9M16
Diluted shares71.3M69.1M64.0M156.6M198.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$17.05
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.54
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.08
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $17.05 of net worth that earned you −$1.54 and generated $2.08 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-4% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 —FY24 1%FY25 -9%

It earned about -4% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+179% shares · 5y

Share count is up 179% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.26 and $3.48 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$3.26
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$41.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$3.48
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$41.4M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $3.48
The three cases
Bear0.0%$3.48
Base0.0%$3.48
Bull5.0%$4.2

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025067 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039386 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-105001 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025067 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039386 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-105001 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025067 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039386 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-105001 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025067 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039386 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-105001 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008103 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025067 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039386 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-105001 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)