MeritValue

Excelerate Energy, Inc.

EEdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'netIncome'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Excelerate Energy, Inc. earns about 5% on invested capital. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$888.6M1$2.47B2$1.16B3$851.4M3$1.23B3
Net income—————
Operating cash flow$141.6M4$225.1M5$231.9M6$244.4M6$461.2M6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$466.8M7$428.6M8$752M9$667.1M10$1.87B10
Cash & equivalents$72.8M11$516.7M12$555.9M13$537.5M14$538.2M14
Diluted shares026.3M108.3M25.8M30.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$727.9
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
—
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$611.5

10 shares is a claim on $727.9 of net worth, against $611.5 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 5%FY23 6%FY24 8%FY25 5%

It earned an average 5% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
— shares · 5y

Total debt has risen 301% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
only 0 years of net income (need ≥3)
Graham Number
$45.79
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023104 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029147 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-078407 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023104 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029147 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-078407 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010373 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023104 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029147 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-078407 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010373 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023104 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029147 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-078407 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)