New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc.
EDUdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on fileNew Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.97 and $28.5 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.28B1 | $3.11B2 | $3B3 | $4.31B3 | $4.9B3 |
| Net income | $334.4M4 | −$1.19B5 | $177.3M6 | $309.6M6 | $371.7M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $1.13B7 | −$1.28B8 | $971M9 | $1.12B9 | $896.6M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $429.2M10 | $150.7M11 | $143M12 | $249.4M12 | $241.9M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $700.9M7 | −$1.43B8 | $828M9 | $873.3M9 | $654.7M9 |
| Total debt | $013 | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $1.61B14 | $1.15B15 | $1.66B16 | $1.39B17 | $1.61B17 |
| Diluted shares | 1.65B | 1.70B | 1.69B | 1.67B | 1.63B |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $22.45 of net worth that earned you $2.28 and generated $4.01 of cash last year.
It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.97 and $28.5 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth18.7%
- fcfBase$828M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth18.7%
- fcfBase$828M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$309.6M
- growthAssumed0.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $8.24 |
| Base | 18.7% | $16.73 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $17.54 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 18.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2021-05-31 · accession 0001193125-23-240864 (Revenues)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0001193125-24-225183 (Revenues)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0001193125-25-216394 (Revenues)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-05-31 · accession 0001193125-23-240864 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0001193125-24-225183 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0001193125-25-216394 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-05-31 · accession 0001193125-23-240864 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0001193125-24-225183 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0001193125-25-216394 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-05-31 · accession 0001193125-23-240864 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0001193125-24-225183 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0001193125-25-216394 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-05-31 · accession 0001193125-21-282201 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-05-31 · accession 0001193125-22-253809 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0001193125-23-240864 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0001193125-24-225183 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0001193125-25-216394 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)