MeritValue

CONSOLIDATED EDISON INC

EDdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CONSOLIDATED EDISON INC earns about 4% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $52.58 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$13.5B1$15.5B2$14.5B3$15.5B3$17B3
Net income$1.35B4$1.66B5$2.52B6$1.82B6$2.02B6
Operating cash flow$2.73B7$3.94B8$2.16B9$3.61B9$4.8B9
Capital expenditure$3.96B10$4.47B10———
Free cash flow (derived)−$1.23B7−$530M8———
Total debt$47.6B11$49.9B12$46.8B13$51.6B14$51.6B14
Cash & equivalents$992M15$1.28B16$1.19B17$1.32B18$1.63B18
Diluted shares349.4M355.8M349.3M347.3M358.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$674.38
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$56.4
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,438.58

10 shares is a claim on $674.38 of net worth that earned you $56.4 last year, against $1,438.58 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 3%FY23 5%FY24 4%FY25 4%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$52.58
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.82B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$92.51
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001047862-24-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001047862-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001047862-26-000031 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001047862-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001047862-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001047862-26-000031 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001047862-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001047862-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001047862-26-000031 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001047862-23-000038 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001047862-23-000038 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001047862-24-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001047862-25-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001047862-26-000031 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001047862-23-000038 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001047862-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001047862-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001047862-26-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)