MeritValue

Ecovyst Inc.

ECVTdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Ecovyst Inc. earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 16% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.88 and $4.61 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$611.2M1$820.2M2$584.8M3$598.3M3$723.5M3
Net income−$139.9M4$73.7M5$71.2M6−$6.65M6−$71.1M6
Operating cash flow$129.9M7$186.6M8$137.6M9$149.9M9$140.3M9
Capital expenditure$60M10$58.9M11$59M12$55.6M12$70.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$69.9M7$127.7M8$78.6M9$94.3M9$69.9M9
Total debt$1.76B13$1.75B14$1.74B15$1.72B16$785.2M16
Cash & equivalents$140.9M17$110.9M18$88.4M19$131.4M20$197.2M20
Diluted shares137.7M135.1M119.5M117.4M116.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$52.04
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$6.13
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.03
Debt you’d be carrying
$67.71

10 shares is a claim on $52.04 of net worth that earned you −$6.13 and generated $6.03 of cash last year, against $67.71 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 4%FY23 4%FY24 2%FY25 1%

It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−16% shares · 5y

Share count is down 16% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 55% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.88 and $4.61 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$3.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$78.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$4.61
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$78.6M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $4.61
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.61
Base0.0%$4.61
Bull5.0%$6.95

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001708035-24-000070 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001708035-25-000070 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001708035-26-000053 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001708035-24-000070 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001708035-25-000070 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001708035-26-000053 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001708035-24-000070 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001708035-25-000070 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001708035-26-000053 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001708035-24-000070 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001708035-25-000070 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001708035-26-000053 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001708035-23-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001708035-24-000070 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001708035-25-000070 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001708035-26-000053 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001708035-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001708035-24-000070 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001708035-25-000070 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001708035-26-000053 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)