MeritValue

ECOLAB INC.

ECLdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ECOLAB INC. earns about 22% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $49.86 and $177.11 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$12.7B1$14.2B2$15.3B3$15.7B3$16.1B3
Net income$1.13B4$1.09B5$1.37B6$2.11B6$2.08B6
Operating cash flow$2.06B7$1.79B8$2.41B9$2.81B9$2.95B9
Capital expenditure$643M10$712.8M11$774.8M12$994.5M12$1.05B12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.42B7$1.08B8$1.64B9$1.82B9$1.9B9
Total debt$411M13$505.1M14$630.4M15$615.7M16$870.4M16
Cash & equivalents$359.9M17$598.6M18$919.5M19$1.26B20$646.2M20
Diluted shares289.1M286.6M286.5M286.6M285.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$342.59
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$72.78
Free cash flow it threw off
$66.77
Debt you’d be carrying
$30.52

10 shares is a claim on $342.59 of net worth that earned you $72.78 and generated $66.77 of cash last year, against $30.52 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
22% avg · 5y
FY21 18%FY22 18%FY23 22%FY24 30%FY25 23%

It earned about 22% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 112% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $49.86 and $177.11 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$177.11
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth9.9%
  • fcfBase$1.82B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$138.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth9.9%
  • fcfBase$1.82B
Earnings Power Value
$49.86
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.37B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$74.91
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years9.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $138.17
The three cases
Bear0.0%$90.36
Base9.9%$138.17
Bull14.9%$169.41

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 9.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001581 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001263 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-018357 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001581 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001263 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-018357 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001581 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001263 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-018357 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001581 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001263 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-018357 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001969 (DebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001581 (DebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001263 (DebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-018357 (DebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001969 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001581 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001263 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-018357 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)