MeritValue

ECB Bancorp, Inc. /MD/

ECBKdata completeness 75%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'cash'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

ECB Bancorp, Inc. /MD/ earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.04 and $10.6 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$22.4M1$29.2M2$54.8M3$577,0004$598,0004
Net income$4.04M5$2.72M6$4.46M7$3.99M8$7.77M8
Operating cash flow$6.45M9$7.77M10$6.43M11$6.23M12$9.22M12
Capital expenditure$104,00013$216,00014$335,00015$60,00016$214,00016
Free cash flow (derived)$6.35M9$7.55M10$6.1M11$6.17M12$9.01M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents—————
Diluted shares08.5M8.5M8.3M8.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$206.85
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.35
Free cash flow it threw off
$10.83
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $206.85 of net worth that earned you $9.35 and generated $10.83 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 4%FY23 16%FY24 13%FY25 18%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
— shares · 5y

Not enough history to read capital allocation.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.04 and $10.6 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$9.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$6.17M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$10.6
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$6.17M
Earnings Power Value
$5.04
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.04M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20.92
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $10.6
The three cases
Bear0.0%$10.6
Base0.0%$10.6
Bull5.0%$13.17

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010974 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038505 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-045444 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009778 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010974 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038505 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-045444 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009778 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010974 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038505 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-045444 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009778 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010974 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038505 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-045444 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009778 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)