MeritValue

Emergent BioSolutions Inc.

EBSdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Emergent BioSolutions Inc. earns about -4% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.77B1$1.12B2$1.05B3$1.04B3$742.9M3
Net income$219.5M4−$211.6M5−$760.5M6−$190.6M6$52.6M6
Operating cash flow$320.2M7−$34.1M8−$206.3M9$58.7M9$170.6M9
Capital expenditure$224.1M10$115.8M11$51.6M12$22.9M12$13.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$96.1M7−$149.9M8−$257.9M9$35.8M9$156.8M9
Total debt$1.69B13$2.82B14$1.73B15$1.36B16$1.16B16
Cash & equivalents$576.1M17$642.6M18$111.7M19$99.5M19$205.4M19
Diluted shares54.1M50.1M51.2M53.0M56.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$92.17
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.28
Free cash flow it threw off
$27.65
Debt you’d be carrying
$204.9

10 shares is a claim on $92.17 of net worth that earned you $9.28 and generated $27.65 of cash last year, against $204.9 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-4% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 -4%FY23 -22%FY24 -6%FY25 4%

It earned an average -4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 31% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$35.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$35.8M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$13.89
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001367644-24-000033 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001367644-25-000021 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001367644-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001367644-24-000033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001367644-25-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001367644-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001367644-24-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001367644-25-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001367644-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001367644-24-000033 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001367644-25-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001367644-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001367644-23-000207 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001367644-24-000033 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001367644-25-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001367644-26-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001367644-23-000207 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001367644-25-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001367644-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)