MeritValue

ENNIS, INC.

EBFdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ENNIS, INC. earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $17.18 and $70.85 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$400M1$431.8M2$420.1M3$394.6M3$392.4M3
Net income$29M4$47.3M5$42.6M6$40.2M6$42.6M6
Operating cash flow$50.7M7$46.8M8$69.1M9$65.9M9$52.7M9
Capital expenditure$6.54M10$4.33M11$6.5M12$5.89M12$11.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$44.1M7$42.4M8$62.6M9$60M9$41M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$85.6M13$94M14$81.6M15$67M16$34.6M16
Diluted shares26.1M26.0M25.9M26.2M25.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$120.17
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$16.59
Free cash flow it threw off
$15.97
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $120.17 of net worth that earned you $16.59 and generated $15.97 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY22 13%FY23 20%FY24 15%FY25 17%FY26 16%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $17.18 and $70.85 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$70.85
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth10.8%
  • fcfBase$60M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$54.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth10.8%
  • fcfBase$60M
Earnings Power Value
$17.18
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$42.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$21.19
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years10.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $54.03
The three cases
Bear0.0%$34.69
Base10.8%$54.03
Bull15.8%$65.8

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 10.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-02-28 · accession 0000950170-24-057691 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-28 · accession 0000950170-25-070268 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-29 · accession 0001193125-26-213764 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-02-28 · accession 0000950170-24-057691 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-28 · accession 0000950170-25-070268 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-29 · accession 0001193125-26-213764 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-02-28 · accession 0000950170-24-057691 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-28 · accession 0000950170-25-070268 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-29 · accession 0001193125-26-213764 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-02-28 · accession 0000950170-24-057691 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-28 · accession 0000950170-25-070268 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-29 · accession 0001193125-26-213764 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-02-28 · accession 0000950170-23-021681 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-28 · accession 0000950170-24-057691 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-29 · accession 0000950170-25-070268 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-28 · accession 0001193125-26-213764 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)