MeritValue

EBAY INC

EBAYdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

EBAY INC earns about 20% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 29% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $44.97 and $60.5 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$10.4B1$9.8B2$10.1B3$10.3B3$11.1B3
Net income$13.6B4−$1.27B5$2.77B6$1.98B6$2.03B6
Operating cash flow$2.66B7$2.25B8$2.43B9$2.41B9$1.96B9
Capital expenditure$444M10$449M11$456M12$458M12$525M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.21B7$1.81B8$1.97B9$1.96B9$1.43B9
Total debt$18.2B13$18.9B14$9.22B14$2.9B15$1.5B15
Cash & equivalents$1.38B16$2.15B17$1.99B18$2.43B18$1.87B18
Diluted shares663.0M558.0M533.0M501.0M468.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$98.61
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$43.4
Free cash flow it threw off
$30.64
Debt you’d be carrying
$32.05

10 shares is a claim on $98.61 of net worth that earned you $43.4 and generated $30.64 of cash last year, against $32.05 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
20% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 -5%FY23 22%FY24 35%FY25 47%

It earned about 20% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−29% shares · 5y

Share count is down 29% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 92% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $44.97 and $60.5 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$56
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.96B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$60.5
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.96B
Earnings Power Value
$44.97
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.03B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$31.03
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $60.5
The three cases
Bear0.0%$60.5
Base0.0%$60.5
Bull5.0%$74.95

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001065088-24-000036 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001065088-25-000037 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001065088-26-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001065088-24-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001065088-25-000037 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001065088-26-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001065088-24-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001065088-25-000037 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001065088-26-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001065088-24-000036 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001065088-25-000037 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001065088-26-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001065088-23-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001065088-24-000036 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001065088-26-000027 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001065088-24-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001065088-25-000037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001065088-26-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)