MeritValue

BRINKER INTERNATIONAL, INC

EATdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

BRINKER INTERNATIONAL, INC earns about 249% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $29.58 and $225.11 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.34B1$3.8B2$4.13B3$4.42B3$5.38B3
Net income$131.6M4$117.6M5$102.6M6$155.3M6$383.1M6
Operating cash flow$369.7M7$252.2M8$256.3M9$421.9M9$679M9
Capital expenditure$94M10$150.3M11$184.9M12$198.9M12$265.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$275.7M7$101.9M8$71.4M9$223M9$413.7M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$23.9M13$13.5M14$15.1M15$64.6M16$18.9M16
Diluted shares46.6M45.6M45.0M45.7M46.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$80.46
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$83.1
Free cash flow it threw off
$89.74
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $80.46 of net worth that earned you $83.1 and generated $89.74 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
249% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 —FY24 394%FY25 103%

It earned about 249% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $29.58 and $225.11 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$225.11
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth16.6%
  • fcfBase$223M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$138.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth16.6%
  • fcfBase$223M
Earnings Power Value
$29.58
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$131.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$38.81
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years16.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $138.8
The three cases
Bear0.0%$69.52
Base16.6%$138.8
Bull20.0%$158.12

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 16.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000703351-23-000043 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-29 · accession 0000703351-24-000030 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-28 · accession 0000703351-25-000035 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000703351-23-000043 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-29 · accession 0000703351-24-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-28 · accession 0000703351-25-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000703351-23-000043 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-29 · accession 0000703351-24-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-28 · accession 0000703351-25-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000703351-23-000043 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-29 · accession 0000703351-24-000030 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-28 · accession 0000703351-25-000035 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000703351-22-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-29 · accession 0000703351-23-000043 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-28 · accession 0000703351-24-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-26 · accession 0000703351-25-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)