MeritValue

BRINKER INTERNATIONAL, INC

EATdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

BRINKER INTERNATIONAL, INC earns about 202% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $35.44 and $540.22 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$3.8B1$4.13B2$4.42B3$5.38B3$5.81B3
Net income$117.6M4$102.6M5$155.3M6$383.1M6$487M6
Operating cash flow$252.2M7$256.3M8$421.9M9$679M9$789.4M9
Capital expenditure$150.3M10$184.9M11$198.9M12$265.3M12$231.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$101.9M7$71.4M8$223M9$413.7M9$557.5M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$13.5M13$15.1M14$64.6M15$18.9M16$110M16
Diluted shares45.6M45.0M45.7M46.1M44.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$99.04
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$108.71
Free cash flow it threw off
$124.44
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $99.04 of net worth that earned you $108.71 and generated $124.44 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
202% avg · 5y
FY22 —FY23 —FY24 394%FY25 103%FY26 110%

It earned about 202% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $35.44 and $540.22 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$540.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$413.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$297.37
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$413.7M
Earnings Power Value
$35.44
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$155.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$50.71
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.06%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $297.37
The three cases
Bear0.0%$131.89
Base20.0%$297.37
Bull20.0%$297.37

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-29 · accession 0000703351-24-000030 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-28 · accession 0000703351-25-000035 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-26 · accession 0000703351-26-000029 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-29 · accession 0000703351-24-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-28 · accession 0000703351-25-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-26 · accession 0000703351-26-000029 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-29 · accession 0000703351-24-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-28 · accession 0000703351-25-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-26 · accession 0000703351-26-000029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-29 · accession 0000703351-24-000030 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-28 · accession 0000703351-25-000035 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-26 · accession 0000703351-26-000029 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-29 · accession 0000703351-23-000043 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-28 · accession 0000703351-24-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-26 · accession 0000703351-25-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-25 · accession 0000703351-26-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)