MeritValue

ENI SPA

Edata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

ENI SPA earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 13% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between €14.9 and €16.64 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue€76.6B1€132.5B2€93.7B3€88.8B3€82.2B3
Net income€5.82B4€13.9B5€4.77B6€2.62B6€2.61B6
Operating cash flow€12.9B7€17.5B8€15.1B9€13.1B9€13.3B9
Capital expenditure€4.95B10€7.7B11€8.74B12€8B12€8.7B12
Free cash flow (derived)€7.91B7€9.76B8€6.38B9€5.09B9€4.63B9
Total debt€27.8B13€26.9B14€28.7B15€30.4B16€28.5B16
Cash & equivalents€8.25B17€10.2B18€10.2B19€8.18B20€8.1B20
Diluted shares3.61B3.57B3.38B3.28B3.15B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
€152.35
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
€8.29
Free cash flow it threw off
€14.71
Debt you’d be carrying
€90.58

10 shares is a claim on €152.35 of net worth that earned you €8.29 and generated €14.71 of cash last year, against €90.58 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 20%FY23 7%FY24 4%FY25 4%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−13% shares · 5y

Share count is down 13% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between €14.9 and €16.64 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
€14.9
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase€5.09B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
€16.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase€5.09B
Earnings Power Value
€15.71
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings€4.77B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
€16.35
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth €16.64
The three cases
Bear0.0%€16.64
Base0.0%€16.64
Bull5.0%€22.24

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001554855-24-000249 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001554855-25-000286 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001554855-26-000390 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001554855-24-000249 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001554855-25-000286 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001554855-26-000390 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001554855-24-000249 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001554855-25-000286 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001554855-26-000390 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001554855-24-000249 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001554855-25-000286 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001554855-26-000390 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001554855-23-000224 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001554855-24-000249 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001554855-25-000286 (Borrowings)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001554855-26-000390 (Borrowings)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001554855-23-000224 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001554855-24-000249 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001554855-25-000286 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001554855-26-000390 (CashAndCashEquivalents)