MeritValue

DXP ENTERPRISES INC

DXPEdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

DXP ENTERPRISES INC earns about 9% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 17% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $43.2 and $247.02 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.11B1$1.48B2$1.68B3$1.8B3$2.02B3
Net income$16.5M4$48.2M5$68.8M6$70.5M6$88.7M6
Operating cash flow$37.1M7$5.89M8$106.2M9$102.2M9$94.3M9
Capital expenditure$6M10$4.92M11$12.3M12$25.1M12$40.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$31.1M7$978,0008$94M9$77.1M9$54M9
Total debt$318.7M13$413.6M14$526.2M15$628.3M16$827.1M16
Cash & equivalents$49M17$46M18$173.1M19$148.3M20$303.8M20
Diluted shares19.8M19.5M17.7M16.7M16.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$301.96
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$53.72
Free cash flow it threw off
$32.7
Debt you’d be carrying
$501.03

10 shares is a claim on $301.96 of net worth that earned you $53.72 and generated $32.7 of cash last year, against $501.03 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 9%FY23 15%FY24 8%FY25 9%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−17% shares · 5y

Share count is down 17% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 160% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $43.2 and $247.02 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$247.02
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$77.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$120.67
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$77.1M
Earnings Power Value
$43.2
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$68.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$60.4
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $120.67
The three cases
Bear0.0%$35.07
Base20.0%$120.67
Bull20.0%$120.67

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001020710-24-000026 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001020710-25-000036 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012382 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001020710-24-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001020710-25-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012382 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001020710-24-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001020710-25-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012382 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001020710-24-000026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001020710-25-000036 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012382 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001020710-23-000044 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001020710-24-000026 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001020710-25-000036 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012382 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001020710-23-000044 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001020710-24-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001020710-25-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012382 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)