MeritValue

DYNEX CAPITAL INC

DXdata completeness 63%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

DYNEX CAPITAL INC earns about 10% on equity, but has diluted owners by 282% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $9.44 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$102.3M1$143.2M2−$6.13M3$113.9M3$319.1M3
Operating cash flow$147M4$126.4M5$62.2M6$14.4M6$120.8M6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$366M7$332M8$119.6M9$377.1M10$531M10
Diluted shares32.8M42.7M54.8M71.3M125.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$196.87
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$25.51
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $196.87 of net worth that earned you $25.51 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
10% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 16%FY23 -1%FY24 10%FY25 13%

It earned an average 10% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+282% shares · 5y

Share count is up 282% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$9.44
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$113.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$33.08
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000826675-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000826675-25-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000826675-26-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000826675-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000826675-25-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000826675-26-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000826675-23-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000826675-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000826675-25-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000826675-26-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)