MeritValue

DEVON ENERGY CORP/DE

DVNdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

DEVON ENERGY CORP/DE earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $38.19 and $47.36 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$13.8B1$19.8B2$15.1B3$15.9B3$16.8B3
Net income$2.81B4$6.03B5$3.74B5$2.89B5$2.64B6
Operating cash flow$4.9B7$8.53B8$6.54B9$6.6B9$6.71B9
Capital expenditure$1.99B10$2.54B11$3.88B12$3.65B12$3.59B12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.91B7$5.99B8$2.66B9$2.96B9$3.12B9
Total debt$13B13$13.1B14$12.8B15$18.3B16$17.8B16
Cash & equivalents$2.1B17$1.31B18$853M19$811M19$1.38B19
Diluted shares665.0M653.0M642.0M634.0M633.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$245.31
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$41.74
Free cash flow it threw off
$49.27
Debt you’d be carrying
$280.82

10 shares is a claim on $245.31 of net worth that earned you $41.74 and generated $49.27 of cash last year, against $280.82 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 28%FY23 17%FY24 10%FY25 10%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 37% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $38.19 and $47.36 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$38.19
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.5%
  • fcfBase$2.96B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$42.33
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.5%
  • fcfBase$2.96B
Earnings Power Value
$47.36
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.89B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$47.98
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $42.33
The three cases
Bear0.0%$40.8
Base0.5%$42.33
Bull5.5%$58.78

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021781 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022844 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-056485 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021781 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-046005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-056485 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021781 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022844 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-056485 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021781 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022844 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-056485 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-002852 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021781 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022844 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-056485 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021781 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022844 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-056485 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)