MeritValue

DAVITA INC.

DVAdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

DAVITA INC. earns about 298% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 31% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $101.98 and $364.05 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$11.6B1$11.6B2$12.1B3$12.8B3$13.6B3
Net income$978.5M4$560.4M5$691.5M6$936.3M6$746.8M6
Operating cash flow$1.93B7$1.56B8$2.06B9$2.02B9$1.89B9
Capital expenditure$641.5M10$603.4M11$568M12$555.4M12$575.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.29B7$961.1M8$1.49B9$1.47B9$1.31B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$461.9M13$244.1M14$380.1M15$794.9M16$676.4M16
Diluted shares109.9M95.8M93.2M87.3M75.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$85.8
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$98.41
Free cash flow it threw off
$172.71
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$85.8 of net worth that earned you $98.41 and generated $172.71 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
298% avg · 5y
FY21 485%FY22 222%FY23 187%FY24 —FY25 —

It earned about 298% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−31% shares · 5y

Share count is down 31% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $101.98 and $364.05 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$364.05
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth4.4%
  • fcfBase$1.47B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$343
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth4.4%
  • fcfBase$1.47B
Earnings Power Value
$101.98
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$746.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years4.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $343
The three cases
Bear0.0%$285.05
Base4.4%$343
Bull9.4%$421.26

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 4.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000927066-24-000013 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000927066-25-000012 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000927066-26-000012 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000927066-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000927066-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000927066-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000927066-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000927066-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000927066-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000927066-24-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000927066-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000927066-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000927066-23-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000927066-24-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000927066-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000927066-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)