MeritValue

DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc.

DVdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc. earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.15 and $48.97 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$332.7M1$452.4M2$572.5M3$656.8M3$748.3M3
Net income$29.3M4$43.3M5$71.5M6$56.2M6$50.7M6
Operating cash flow$82.7M7$94.9M8$119.7M9$159.7M9$211.2M9
Capital expenditure$9.4M10$40M11$17M12$27.1M12$38.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$73.4M7$54.9M8$102.7M9$132.5M9$172.7M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$221.6M13$267.8M14$310.1M15$292.8M15$259M15
Diluted shares160.3M170.8M173.4M175.1M166.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$67.87
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.04
Free cash flow it threw off
$10.36
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $67.87 of net worth that earned you $3.04 and generated $10.36 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 7%FY23 9%FY24 7%FY25 6%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.15 and $48.97 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$48.97
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$132.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$27.47
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$132.5M
Earnings Power Value
$3.15
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$50.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$6.77
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $27.47
The three cases
Bear0.0%$12.91
Base20.0%$27.47
Bull20.0%$27.47

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001814 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020499 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001814 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020499 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001814 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020499 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001814 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020499 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001814 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020499 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)