MeritValue

Duke Energy CORP

DUKdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Duke Energy CORP earns about 3% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $52.12 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$24.5B1$28.7B2$28.7B3$30.1B3$31.7B3
Net income$3.91B4$2.55B5$2.84B6$4.52B6$4.97B6
Operating cash flow$8.29B7$5.93B8$9.88B9$12.3B9$12.3B9
Capital expenditure$9.72B10$11.4B11$12.6B12$12.3B12$14B12
Free cash flow (derived)−$1.43B7−$5.44B8−$2.73B9$48M9−$1.69B9
Total debt$131B13$143.5B14$154.8B15$165B16$177B16
Cash & equivalents$341M17$409M18$253M19$314M20$245M20
Diluted shares769.0M770.0M771.0M772.0M777.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$667.21
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$63.94
Free cash flow it threw off
−$21.8
Debt you’d be carrying
$2,278.61

10 shares is a claim on $667.21 of net worth that earned you $63.94 and generated −$21.8 of cash last year, against $2,278.61 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 3%FY23 3%FY24 4%FY25 4%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 35% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$52.12
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.91B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$97.33
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001326160-24-000037 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001326160-25-000072 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001326160-26-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001326160-24-000037 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001326160-25-000072 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001326160-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001326160-24-000037 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001326160-25-000072 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001326160-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001326160-24-000037 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001326160-25-000072 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001326160-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001326160-23-000073 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001326160-24-000037 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001326160-25-000072 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001326160-26-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001326160-23-000073 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001326160-24-000037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001326160-25-000072 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001326160-26-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)