MeritValue

DT Midstream, Inc.

DTMdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

DT Midstream, Inc. earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $30.84 and $37.41 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$840M1$920M2$922M3$981M3$1.24B3
Net income$307M4$370M5$384M6$354M6$441M6
Operating cash flow$572M7$725M8$798M9$763M9$867M9
Capital expenditure$140M10$338M11$772M12$350M12$426M12
Free cash flow (derived)$432M7$387M8$26M9$413M9$441M9
Total debt$3.05B13$3.39B14$3.23B15$6.82B16$3.32B16
Cash & equivalents$132M17$61M18$56M19$68M20$54M20
Diluted shares96.9M97.2M97.5M98.4M102.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$462.05
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$43.02
Free cash flow it threw off
$43.02
Debt you’d be carrying
$324.29

10 shares is a claim on $462.05 of net worth that earned you $43.02 and generated $43.02 of cash last year, against $324.29 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 7%FY23 7%FY24 4%FY25 7%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y

Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $30.84 and $37.41 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$30.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth2.2%
  • fcfBase$413M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$31.46
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth2.2%
  • fcfBase$413M
Earnings Power Value
$37.41
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$370M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$66.86
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years2.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $31.46
The three cases
Bear0.0%$25.67
Base2.2%$31.46
Bull7.2%$46.55

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 2.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001842022-24-000003 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001842022-25-000003 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001842022-26-000003 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001842022-24-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001842022-25-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001842022-26-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001842022-24-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001842022-25-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001842022-26-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001842022-24-000003 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001842022-25-000003 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001842022-26-000003 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001842022-23-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001842022-24-000003 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001842022-25-000003 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001842022-26-000003 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001842022-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001842022-24-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001842022-25-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001842022-26-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)